June 25, 2003

RJC Gets the Facts Wrong: Jews Remain Strongly Democratic

Listed in: Other Domestic Policy, NJDC News, Press Releases

Washington, DC: In response to a statement today by the Republican Jewish Coalition, in which the RJC got it flat wrong in describing the sample size of a national, independent poll released on Tuesday showing that Jews remain strongly Democratic, National Jewish Democratic Council Executive Director Ira N. Forman today made the following statement:

"We do not expect our Republican counterparts to be happy about the results of the new, independent polling data released yesterday, as the data show that American Jews are remaining strongly Democratic. But we are disappointed that the Republicans could not even get the facts right when it comes to the specifics of this poll."

"The RJC today wrote that this poll's Jewish sample size was 99, supposedly resulting in a large margin of error. In point of fact, this national poll aggregated data across five quarters, obtaining a weighted sample size of 450. This resulted, as we wrote yesterday, in a margin of error of 4.7 percent for this poll."

"Aggregating polling sub-samples for small populations such as American Jews is a standard practice in examining public opinion for populations that are hard to sample. For example, it is clearly good enough for The Gallup Organization. In September of 2002, Gallup released an aggregation of Jewish sub-samples from 21 separate Gallup surveys conducted over a year and a half. In their analysis, the aggregated sample size was 408. The Gallup Organization found that the Jewish 'tilt toward Democratic orientation is the most pronounced shift from the national average of any of the major religious groups in the country.'"

Mr. Forman added, "The bottom line remains the same. At a time of tremendous national popularity for President Bush, his approval ratings in the Jewish community are dramatically lower than in the population as a whole. Seventy-one percent of American Jews would definitely vote or consider voting for someone other than President Bush, which is some 20 percentage points higher than in the population as a whole. This poll demonstrates that American Jews remain strongly Democratic in their party affiliation, and that Jews would like to see Democrats win back control of Congress."

"These facts are clearly not good news for the GOP and the Bush White House, both of which have been hard at work trying to woo the Jewish vote. But ignoring the particulars of this poll will not change the fact that American Jews remain overwhelmingly Democratic, just as they have been since the 1920?s," Mr. Forman said.

For a complete report on this new data, click here.