Neurotic Dem: “The Final Jewish Vote: Obama, in a Landslide”

Aaron Keyak — November 6, 2008 – 3:39 pm | Barack Obama | Democrats | Election 2008 | Polls Comments (0) Add a comment

Another great post from Josh Rolnick of the Neurotic Democrat blog.

Here is Rolnick's take on the election results.

The numbers are in.

According to the exit polls, 78 percent of Jews voted for Barack Obama. Only 21 percent pulled the lever for McCain.

Given the negative campaign unleashed against Obama in the Jewish community — spearheaded by the Republican Jewish Coalition’s “guilt by association” smears — those numbers are astounding, and they give me great pride.

Consider how far the community has come. The July 1 Gallup poll had Jewish support for Obama at 61 percent; 34 percent backed McCain. On September 8, AJC had Obama at 57 percent, McCain at 30 percent.

These numbers were never terrible, except when you consider that in presidential elections between 1992 and 2004, the Democratic nominee for president averaged 79 percent support in the Jewish community.

Rolnick also took careful notes on NJDC's teleconference yesterday.

Ira Forman, executive director of the NJDC, said Jewish voters — like voters generally — turned to Obama partly as a response to the economic meltdown. Further, he said, McCain’s pick of Palin tarnished his moderate image with Jewish voters, driving some would-be supporters away. Finally, he said, the Obama campaign’s outreach to Jewish voters — along with the efforts of groups like NJDC, the Jewish Council for Educational Research (which organized The Great Schlep), and JewsForObama.com — was “much more sophisticated and extensive than anything I’ve seen in years.”

Specific numbers for the states are not yet available, but the NJDC — noting that state trends tend to mirror the national numbers — released estimates of Jewish margins for Obama in several key states. Crunching those numbers a bit further shows just how critical Jews were to Obama’s success:

• Obama won Ohio by 204,000 votes; the Jewish margin for Obama accounted for about 53,000 of that total, or about 26 percent of his winning margin.
• Obama won Pennsylvania by 600,000 votes; the Jewish margin for Obama was 104,000, or about 17 percent.
• Obama won Virginia by 155,000 votes; the Jewish margin for Obama was 36,000, or about 23 percent.
• Obama won Nevada by 120,000 votes; the Jewish margin for Obama was 26,000, or about 22 percent.
• Obama won New York by 1,784,000 votes; the Jewish margin for Obama was 590,000, or about 33 percent.
• Obama won Florida by 195,000 votes; the Jewish margin for Obama was 238,000 – providing more than the difference in that state.

As usual, you should take a look at Rolnick's entire post by clicking here.

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