Jewish Incumbent Race Profile: Arlen Specter

Linda Berg — March 10, 2010 – 3:15 pm | Democrats | Election 2010 | Israel | Reproductive Rights | Women's Issues Comments (3) Add a comment

When Arlen Specter (D-PA), the last Jewish Republican Senator, announced that he was switching parties to become a Democrat, he joined the vast majority of voters, including Jewish voters, who feel that the Republican Party’s agenda does not speak to their basic values.

“Since my election in 1980, as part of the Reagan Big Tent, the Republican Party has moved far to the right,” Specter said in a statement. “Last year, more than 200,000 Republicans in Pennsylvania changed their registration to become Democrats. I now find my political philosophy more in line with Democrats than Republicans.”

Specter, who has always been proud of his independent streak and bipartisanship, considers himself to be a moderate on social issues - which of course are many of the issues that continue to keep Jews from voting Republican.

He is proud that he opposed Republican opposition to embryonic stem cell research and, in general, backs increased funding for health issues. He has said that “Increases in funding for the National Institutes of Health, which I have spearheaded, have saved and prolonged many lives, including my own.” Regardless of party labels, Specter has always been a staunch supporter abortion rights and of Israel.

In 2004, Specter barely survived a bitter Republican primary in 2004 against right wing conservative, Pat Toomey. As Specter’s moderate views continued to distance himself from the right wing base of the Republican Party, it became clear that a 2010 primary challenge from Toomey could threaten his Senate career, since the conservative Republican base of voters tend to vote in primaries. And because he had always enjoyed support from moderate Democrats, Specter felt assured of a general election victory if he did not have to face a strong Republican in a primary. Having been assured of Democratic leadership reelection support if he switched parties, Specter thought he would easily be reelected.

But the best laid plans sometimes run into snags and, shortly after his switch, Democratic Representative Joe Sestak announced a Democratic primary challenge, coming ideologically to Specter’s left. All polling thus far has had Specter easily defeating Sestak in the primary; however, ironically, it is not clear whether Specter can prevail over his old nemesis, Pat Toomey, in the general. In the last few weeks, one Rasmussen poll showed Specter losing to Toomey 47 to 38 percent, and another Quinnipiac poll showed Specter ahead 49 to 42 percent.

There are many explanations for the discrepancy in polling. Some say it has to do with methodology and whether likely voters are polled versus registered voters. But with so many months to go before November, it is really difficult to identify who are truly likely voters. We know Jews are likely voters. NJDC estimates that as many as 80% of Jewish voters regularly vote. However, one thing is clear: voter blocs that traditionally do not show up to vote in off-year elections tend to be the young, the poor, minorities, and unmarried women; who are all part of the Democratic voting base. These are the voters who put Obama over the top in 2008. Without them, not only Arlen Specter, but other Democratic candidates, will have a tough electoral row to hoe.

Specter is a survivor. He has a strong ideological primary challenger who will push him to the left and if he wins that primary in May, he immediately will need to shift gears to appeal to moderate voters who find Toomey too radical to support. For those who love politics, the Pennsylvania Senate race will be fascinating to follow. 

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